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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to embrace a firm stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following making warnings of "significant consequences" last August should Russia's president persisted hindering peace discussions, Trump eventually imposed substantial penalties on Russia's biggest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action significantly affected the Russian leader's capacity to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

But, with his recently unveiled 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, that was created by US and Russian officials without Ukrainian or European input, Trump has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly stance.

Rewarding Invasion

This plan would essentially favor Putin for invading Ukraine while leaving the country's political freedom in danger. Although ringing statements that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", much of the proposal actually weaken that same independence. Seen as a Russian ideal would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his corporate experience, Trump continues to treat the war as a mere territorial dispute, like ceding Putin a section of Ukrainian soil will please the president. But, Putin's military campaign is not simply about dominating a charred area of deindustrialized land in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's democracy – and Putin's obvious goal to eliminate it so it no longer acts as an appealing standard for the Russia's population of the accountable government that his increasing dictatorship denies them.

Land Concessions

While keeping in status the currently split oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would force Ukraine to give up the whole this eastern territory. In addition to benefiting Russia with area that its troops have been unable to capture in exceeding a ten years of fighting, this surrender would render Ukraine's military defenses critically weakened.

The area is the site of the nation's highly-touted "defensive line", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a key barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these defenses, providing Putin a open way to the capital should he subsequently choose to resume the hostilities.

Military Reductions

Additionally, in a action that would enable future hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to diminish the size of its military from their current large number personnel to a maximum of this lower number. Significantly, Trump's proposal places no such restrictions on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to depict Ukraine's legitimate administration as Nazis, the plan states: "All Nazi ideology and actions must be condemned and forbidden." As if to emphasize this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold political contests in 100 days" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal imposes no requirement that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting votes in his own country.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the plan makes the Russian Federation commit not to "enter other states" and to "enshrine in legislation its policy of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that Putin has violated comparable treaties in the history – including the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow agreed to a truce and a restoration of occupied land in the Donbas to Kyiv – for what reason should anyone trust Putin this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on external security guarantees. While the proposal warns of a "immediate joint military response" should the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable protection assurances", the particulars vary from vague to concerning. The proposal would not just prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent Nato members from stationing military personnel on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the reassurance force, likely commanded by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to prevent Russia from rebuilding his diminished military, rearming, and resuming aggression.

International Concern

A separate parallel deal according to sources would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, planned, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an attack endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This implies a military response. However unlike a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary protection against additional hostilities – the success of the side agreement would depend on the commitment of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to respond with force to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not