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Well. From one perspective, the nation's protracted bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.