How Donald Trump Achieved a Gaza Breakthrough That Escaped Biden
At first, the Israeli aerial attack on the Hamas negotiating team in Qatar appeared like yet another intensification that drove the prospect of peace further away.
The attack on September 9 breached the territorial integrity of an American ally and risked expanding the hostilities into a broader regional conflict.
Negotiations seemed to be collapsing.
However, it turned out to be a key moment that culminated in a agreement, announced by Donald Trump, to free all remaining hostages.
That represents a goal that Trump, and Joe Biden previously, had sought for almost 24 months.
It is just the first step towards a more durable peace, and the details of Hamas disarmament, Gaza governance and full Israeli withdrawal are still to be negotiated.
But if this deal holds, it could be Trump's signature achievement of his return to office - one that escaped Joe Biden and his administration.
The president's distinct approach and key alliances with the Israeli government and the Arab world appear to have contributed in this breakthrough.
However, as with most foreign policy wins, there were also elements at play beyond the influence of either man.
Strong Ties Which Biden Never Had
Publicly, Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are consistently friendly.
The president likes to say that Israel has no greater ally, and Netanyahu has called Trump as Israel's "greatest ever ally in the White House". Moreover these positive statements have been backed up by deeds.
During his initial time in office, Trump relocated the American diplomatic mission in the country from its former location to Jerusalem and abandoned a long-held US position that Jewish communities in the Palestinian West Bank are against international law, the position under global norms.
After the Israeli military began its bombing campaign against the Islamic Republic in the summer, Trump ordered American aircraft to target the Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities with its largest non-nuclear weapons.
These visible shows of backing may have allowed Trump the room to exert more influence on the Israeli government behind the scenes. According to reports, Trump's envoy, his representative, browbeat the prime minister in the latter part of the year into agreeing to a temporary ceasefire in return for the freeing of some hostages.
After Israeli forces attacked against Syrian forces in July, including bombing a place of worship, Trump urged Netanyahu to change course.
The leader displayed a level of will and pressure on an Israel's leader that is virtually unprecedented, says an analyst of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "There is no example of an American president literally telling an Israeli prime minister that they must agree or else."
Biden's connection with Netanyahu's government was always more tenuous.
The Biden team's "close embrace strategy" argued that the US had to embrace Israel publicly in order to allow it to moderate the nation's war conduct in private.
Beneath this was the president's nearly half-century of backing for the state, as well as sharp divisions within his Democratic coalition over the conflict in Gaza. Each move Biden took risked fracturing his own political backing, whereas Trump's solid Republican base gave him more room to act.
Ultimately, domestic politics or personal relationships may have had little impact than the reality that, during Biden's presidency, Israel was unwilling to make peace.
Eight months into Trump's second term, with Iran chastened, the militant group to its immediate north significantly reduced and Gaza in ruins, all its key military goals had been accomplished.
Business History Assisted Secure Gulf's Backing
The Israeli missile attack in Doha, which killed a local national but not the intended targets, prompted the president to deliver an ultimatum to Netanyahu. Hostilities had to end.
The US leader had given Israel a relatively free hand in the territory. The president provided US armed support to Israel's campaign in the neighboring country. But an attack on Qatar soil was a different matter completely, moving him towards the Arab position on how best to conclude the conflict.
Several Trump officials have told media outlets that this was a turning point which motivated the leader to exert maximum pressure to finalize an agreement.
This US president's close ties with the Arab monarchies are widely known. He has business dealings with Qatar and the UAE. He began both his presidential terms with official trips to the kingdom. This year, Trump also visited in Qatar and the UAE capital.
The president's Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between the Jewish state and a number of Arab nations, such as the UAE, was the biggest diplomatic achievement of his initial presidency.
His visits he spent in the capitals of the Arabian Peninsula in recent months helped change his thinking, according to an expert of the a policy institute. Trump did not travel to Israel on this Middle East trip but went to the UAE, Saudi Arabia and the state where he heard consistent appeals to bring an end to the war.
Less than a month after that attack on Doha, Trump was present close as the prime minister personally phoned Qatar to express regret. Subsequently, the prime minister gave approval on Trump's 20-point peace plan for the territory - one that additionally had the backing of influential Arab states in the region.
If Trump's alliance with his counterpart provided him the room to influence Israel to reach an agreement, his history with Arab rulers may have ensured their support, and helped them convince the group to agree to the deal.
"One of the things that evidently occurred was that President Trump gained leverage with the Israelis, and through intermediaries with the militants," says Jon Alterman of the a research center.
"This was crucial. The capacity to achieve this on his own schedule, and not succumb to the demands of the combatants has been a problem that many earlier administrations have faced, and Trump seems to do with some success."
The fact that Trump is much more popular in Israel than the prime minister himself was leverage that Trump employed to his advantage, the expert continues.
Currently Israel has agreed to freeing more than 1,000 Palestinians imprisoned in Israeli prisons and has agreed to a partial withdrawal from Gaza.
The group will release all the remaining hostages, living and dead, taken in the initial October 7 assault, which resulted in the loss of more than 1,200 Israeli citizens.
An end to the war, which has resulted in the devastation of Gaza and the fatalities of over 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal