‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Tightens India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a military engagement being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's households.

As military actions on Iran impede energy deliveries through the vital shipping lane, availability of cooking gas are shrinking across India, pushing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in commercial eateries.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on industrial fuel canisters or piped gas, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are switching to traditional burners and induction stoves to keep food preparation going."

Regional Impact

In a financial hub, local news say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their gas stocks have depleted with minimal reserves. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is truly dismal. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies come and go. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers report a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the authorities maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore household consumers and officials say stocks are being reallocated to households as geopolitical strain from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.

Approximately six out of ten of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic bottleneck now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.

The relevant department says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, enhancing domestic production by about a significant margin. Business-grade fuel is being reserved for essential sectors such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Unnecessary hoarding and stockpiling has been caused by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Growing Panic

Now the concern is spreading beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a gas outlet. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.

According to reports from market experts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be exaggerated.

India imports almost all of its crude oil. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The key weakness is cooking gas, analysts say.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through Hormuz.

Refineries can modify output to extract a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only raise domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be moderately reduced through alternative sourcing. Fuel availability remains largely sufficient. Cooking gas supply is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the anxiety on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative alleges opportunistic profiteering.

"Distributors are misusing the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."

For now, India's energy imports may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next gas canister.